June opens on a note of cautious anxiety. Nifty closed June 1 at 23,382.60 – its fourth consecutive losing session- as the Iran-US conflict flared over the weekend. Tehran suspended peace talks after US-backed Israeli strikes, briefly spiking Brent crude above $97/bbl. President Trump signalled negotiations are ongoing and a ceasefire MOU “could be reached within a week.” The RBI MPC meets June 3–5; the June 5 verdict is the most-watched policy event of the month. Markets expect a hold at 5.25%, but the tone will signal the rate path for FY27. Selectivity and quality remain the watchwords.
May 2026 -Correction Deepens
Nifty closed May at ~23,548 -bounced from 22,183 March low but sold off sharply in the final week on renewed Iran-US conflict, ₹8,000 Cr MSCI rebalancing outflows, and weak Q4 FY26 earnings. FII selling persisted; DIIs provided the only meaningful support. India VIX spiked late, underscoring hidden volatility.
June 2026 -Key Catalysts
● RBI MPC (Jun 3–5): Hold at 5.25% expected. Inflation commentary is crucial.
● Iran-US Ceasefire: A peace MOU would collapse crude and re-rate Indian equities sharply upward.
● Monsoon Watch: IMD below-normal forecast (92% of LPA) + El Niño Jun–Sep are food inflation risk factors.
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