H1 FY26 – Resilience
India secured landmark trade deals with the US and EU; US tariffs on Indian goods fell from ~50% to ~18% (PIB). RBI cut repo rate by 125 bps cumulatively since Feb 2025. FDI surged; GDP hit 8.2% in Q2 FY26 (RBI Apr MPC statement). Nifty held its ground. Result: Strong macro, strong earnings, strong flows through H1.
H2 FY26 – Shock, Recovery Now Beginning
Iran-US war (from Mar 2026) drove Brent to $126 peak, triggered FII outflows of ₹1.17 lakh crore in March (1Finance/RBI). Rupee hit 95.21 intraday low. Nifty closed FY26 at 22,331, down ~4%. May Outlook: Nifty at 24,032.80 as of May 5, 2026. Q4 FY26 earnings + crude trend = next leg signal.
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